The heating market – a sleeping giant

The heating sector accounts for the largest share of energy consumption (Fig. 10) with around 40 percent, and therefore also the highest CO2 emissions. The sectors "Transport", "Traffic" and "Power" follow with significantly smaller proportions. The pivotal factor in reducing energy consumption quickly is an improvement in efficiency. Additional potential is offered by increased utilisation of decentralised combined heat and power modules for the generation of heat and power in parallel (Fig. 9 and 11).

Figure 9	Figure 10	Figure 11

Advancement of the modernisation of existing buildings

The heating sector offers favourable conditions for the consistent translation of the political twin strategy, because in Germany the majority of heating systems are currently outdated. At the moment, no more than 20 percent of all heating systems reflect state of the art technology. In order to meet the energy and climate-political challenges set down by 2020, the current rate of modernisation of fewer than 600,000 systems per annum would need to be doubled.

30 percent energy savings potential

Replacing outdated systems with advanced condensing boilers, heat pumps and biomass boilers, enhanced by solar thermal systems and thermal insulation measures, would save more than 30 percent fossil energy and CO2 emissions. This would represent 12 percent of the energy consumption of Germany or, in other words, half way to achieving the political goals.

Improving efficiency is the biggest lever

Measures to bring about climate protection and energy savings must be designed so that they can be translated cost-effectively. The potential of renewables is inadequate to cover the net energy consumption. Consequently energy savings through improved efficiency are a must, which also applies to renewables. Utilising existing efficiency technology is the greatest incentive – ahead of substitution. Both approaches are realistic today with technology already available on the market.

A well thought-out subsidy policy is required

Energy efficiency and a contribution to reducing CO2 emissions should be the determining criteria for assessing individual technologies. When politicians develop subsidies, they must follow an approach that is open to different technologies and is neutral towards the energy source. When modernising existing buildings, an important role is played by the combination of condensing technology and solar thermal. This combination is characterised not only by a good price/performance ratio and by making a significant contribution to the prevention of CO2 emissions, but also by the fact that it accounts for the greatest proportion in modernisation projects by far.
 
On the other hand, a fluctuating subsidy policy – such as the temporary suspension of the market incentive programme (MAP) by the Federal Ministry for the Environment –results in a wide-spread unsettling of the market. It robs investors of any security for their planning and finally puts the achievement of the energy and climate-political goals in question.

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