Increasing energy consumption – limited range

Energy consumption worldwide has doubled since 1970 and will triple by 2030 (Fig. 2). This energy demand is driven by the growing hunger for energy of countries like Russia, China and India, whilst waste continues unabated in western industrial nations, primarily in the USA. The fact that Germany has managed to break the link between economic growth and energy consumption and now uses five percent less energy than it did in 1990 is an important step in the right direction. However, safeguarding the future requires additional savings.

Figure 2

Energy prices set to rise in the medium and long term

Energy prices are becoming ever more crucial cost factors – for manufacturers as well as for consumers. The price of oil has risen five-fold between 2000 and 2008. Although it has dropped again significantly after an extreme peak of $140 US per barrel of crude, it is clear that the time of cheap energy has been and gone. In the long term, prices and a high degree of volatility can be expected. In concrete terms this means that, specific world-political and world-economic events will increasingly trigger extreme fluctuations in energy prices.

Fossil fuels account for almost 80 percent of global energy consumption

In total, fossil fuels account for in excess of 80 percent of the energy mix worldwide (Fig. 3). Renewables account for around 7 percent, nuclear 11 percent. The limited oil and gas reserves will, in the long term, not be able to cover the growing worldwide demand for energy (Fig. 4). The development of exploration technologies and new finds with higher yields are responsible for the fact that the range of availability of oil and gas has hardly changed over the course of the past 20 years.

Figure 3	Figure 4

Security of supply under threat

The strong concentration on fossil fuels brings with it substantial risks, particularly for western industrial nations, as they are largely dependent on imports for oil and gas. As many imports originate in regions with sometimes unstable political systems, there is a risk that raw materials and energy reserves may be misused as a means of exerting power.

Reducing energy consumption worldwide

The world consumes as much energy in a single year as has been created in one million years. Countries like the USA, Russia and fast developing economies in Asia have to be persuaded that practical measures for saving energy and reducing emissions are unavoidable.

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